Keeping The Faith, Losing My Friends
There are a lot of people who were once here regularly, who are not here at all anymore.
While there are various reasons for this, the main reason is that this site opposes Christian nationalism and Donald Trump.
I do so for the same reasons I exposed corrupt pastors and heretical movements…they defile the church.
When you defile the church, you defile the people of God who should be able to look at the church as a sanctuary.
When you countenance idolatry of any sort, you defile Christ and the Spirit leaves the building.
Christian nationalists worship a false Christ…one that David Brooks identifies as more nihilistic than Christian…”it celebrates “pagan virtues”… power, courage, glory, will, self-assertion,” as well as domination over “those sick sentimentalists who practice compassion.” The power of suffering and sacrifice is mocked, though it is the power that saved the world.
Trump embodies all the vices associated with anti-Christ…ruling through vengeance, fear and lies…and too much of the church celebrates such and calls it holy.
The choice I had and have (as someone with a “platform”) is to embrace this movement, oppose this movement, or stay silent.
I refuse to stay silent when my God is mocked, our church defiled, and God’s people are being used and deceived.
This isn’t simply a political issue…it’s central to my faith.
I have to oppose anything anti-Christ…and oppose it loudly and consistently.
So…yes, I’m painfully aware that there has been a mass exodus of people, many of whom were beloved by readers (and by me, for that matter).
I’m also painfully aware that someday soon I’ll have to stand before the Lord and give an account for what I’ve done and what I’ve left undone.
On this front at least, I did my best.
We miss our old friends and their contributions to what we’ve done here…maybe someday we’ll talk again about what all of us could have done better.
Until then, we will write what we believe the Spirit has given us words for and lift up the real Jesus.
Michael,
I stand with you! My Facebook friends have dropped by half for the same reason. I can no longer discuss the state of our country with most of my family because I am not in support of Trump. Never in my life have I witnessed our nation so divided.
Bob,
It’s sad and staggering…it’s not just division, it’s deception.
If one wants to support his political stands, I can almost understand that.
Supporting him for religious reasons is supporting a religion I want no part of…
Bob,
It may get worse.
“You will be hated by everyone because of my name, but the one who endures to the end will be saved” ~ Jesus, Mark 13:13 [CSB]
Michael,
People who support a monster and almost dictator, were never really your friends.
The German people went through this in the 1930(s).
I have faith in The American People, and I have hope that they’ll wake up before it’s too late.
pstrmike,
Truth.
Loss of Facebook friends could end up being the least of our worries…
Muff,
Evangelicals have always supported monsters of various sizes and stripes…and demonized those who dared point out the evil.
I thought some would at least have a conversation online or off about such things…but Trump is a powerful force.
Damned if I know why…
Michael,
I really think that God may be purging the church through the existence of Trump. At some point, it will be either really difficult to a Trump supporter (that is already beginning with the tariffs) or people will stand out for their wrong decisions. Trump is acting like a dictator in a banana republic, and I keep wondering how long the American public will stand for it. So many of his actions-deportation without proper legal representation, shutting down colleges over DEI, issuing executive orders over law firms actions against him in an open court of law-will not be tolerated if he suddenly takes off after churches, news anchors, or other famous Americans. I think at some point, everything will descend into chaos. I pray it doesn’t take four years.
Michael, I always read your stuff and consider you to be a valued friend. I’m certainly anything but a Christian nationalist. I just don’t comment because I have nothing to add. Maybe I’m just old but it’s feeling repetitive like preaching to the choir. But do what you feel led to do.
Linn,
I’ve had similar thoughts…I hope you’re right.
God is good at bringing order out of chaos…
Dave,
Thanks!
It is repetitive…I get bored with it myself until he scares the hell out of me afresh… 🙂
I feel like I vibe a bit with Dave Rolph. Here’s my thing, it’s not like we went from political nirvana to political hell. It always seems like hell for one reason or another. Politics is a black hole of angst and grief. I’m not saying people should not care, I’m just saying for me it can be the only topic of my life. That said, I continue to visit here often because I appreciate your heart and perspectives. But I just can’t dive into the conversation much.
I’m so glad for this website. My sense of betrayal is deep, but I’m encouraged that at least some Christians have open eyes. Just like Pogo said, “We have met the enemy and he is us.”
Michael ,you’re not getting rid of me either – the community here (and yes, I believe there still is one) helps keep me grounded, and I wish I had more to give back to it.
Keep preachin it, my friend ……
Michael,
We have often written about a remnant… Now we know what that means.
I have certainly lost a good number of friends along the way due to my writings, but I have also gained some. Overall it’s definitely been a net negative, but I cherish the new friends I have made as there is a genuine kinship.
In many ways, Michael and I are preaching to the choir, and I certainly understand how that can get tiring or monotonous for some. At the same time, with all the wicked craziness going on, I think it is actually good in many ways for the choir to keep hearing the preaching. It provides a place of sanity and refuge for some who experience the craziness all around them to know that they are not all alone and that they themselves are not crazy for not conforming to the craziness surrounding them. In fact, this is how I gained some of my newer friends as they saw my writings and reached out to me as they were encouraged by what they read.
There very well may be more people in the choir needing encouragement than we even know. To Wilma above: I don’t know if you have ever commented here before, but I am glad you have found this site and are encouraged by it and we welcome you as family.
At the same time, while many have been driven away by what they don’t like, I also believe they are in need to hear the message. Seemingly, they still likely won’t repent from seeing it, but all the more they’ll be even less likely to repent if they never hear the message and just continue to see and hear only what their tickled ears seek. It may take an act of God, Himself, for many of them to repent, but often God will use other humans in the process.
I’m sure you have a better handle on why folks have melted away into the crowd. I think too that some have wearied of beating the drum against abusive church leaders and behaviors and seeing few, if any, real change. That’s the thing about change–it often goes unnoticed because it doesn’t generate negative outcomes as the previous or alternative behaviors do. It’s hard to note the ones who have gotten it right and keep it there. For those of us who have tracked with you for a long time, we have to guard against becoming jaded or simply expect poor behavior from a certain cast of characters.
fil,
Whenever I read the word “jaded” I have to stop and listen to Jerry Jeff Walker’s “Jaded Lover” or the song will rattle about my brain for the rest of the day. Great song…
I think you’re right…we’ve worked hard for a long time and seen no sign of change.
Trump is actually the exclamation point on our defeat…he is simply what all the twisted pastors we’ve noted have always wanted to be…the Moses Model in it’s fullness…wildly supported by the same people that prop them up. Virtue, or even ‘what the Bible says” is totally irrelevant.
I’m not jaded…I’m a realist.
Back in a bit…I’ve been fighting pneumonia all week and need to get medicated and cleaned up…
Michael, Been here since before Covid. Have never posted because like Dave (certainly not in his or other posters league) I’ve nothing to add. Replied today to encourage you. Hope you’re on the mend. Health issues on top of age is just the pits. Thankful to have another day to trust Jesus, Randy
Randy,
Thank you…I’m getting better, but at my age there’s a ceiling to “better”.
Glad you’re here…thankful to still be here as well!
Like Dave, PH and others, I’m still here, but don’t have much to add, other than an occasional “Amen.” Even if I disagreed, I just can’t see walking away from a community I’ve been a part of for more than 20 years.
Praying for your recovery, Michael. I remember when we were both younger and healthier.
I was thinking more about this today. It’s not really a comment on the PP. Michael, this is your blog and you must be faithful to what you believe you need to post. I’ve been around for 20 years and truly appreciate you.
Being here in very conservative North Idaho, I know plenty of people who have poured their heart and soul into attacking and complaining about democratic leaders. Clinton, Obama, and Biden always the target for insults, memes, and propaganda. Such people post nothing but anti-liberal rants on their facebook pages. Fox News 24-7. You get the idea. And, of course, many of these people equate conservatism with Christianity, so they think the church should be following suit. But I’ve never allowed any of that noise into our church. I’ve always sought to guide our congregation to what the scriptures say, not Sean Hannity. Over the years, we’ve lost people who believe I should have joined the Fox News chorus and preached thusly. Now, with a new regime in the White House, I’ve got people from the “other side of the aisle” very worked up. They can’t stop posting about what’s going on politically in our country. They are falling apart, disowning family, and drawing lines. And once again, I’m holding a line that our church not be drawn into the mire. It’s not that we stick our heads in the sand on issues, it’s that we seek allegiance to Jesus, not a political party. Overall, I’m pretty put out with both sides. There’s plenty of ego and evil to go around. And the co-opting of Jesus is depressing. Bottom line, as a leader of our church, I feel my calling is to preach gospel and practice gospel.
PH and all here,
PH, I appreciate your heart in maintaining holding the line in preaching the Gospel and not swinging left or right. In Jesus day, many no longer followed him after exposure to his teachings, and today people continue to unfollow Jesus when they find out he isn’t of this world.
For the time being I keep politics off my Facebook page (except for occasional likes of some stuff I agree), and focus on art, meteorology, and the occasional offbeat post.
I do this in hopes that, despite some HUGE differences between myself and a few friends on there, I can still minister to them, whether or not they “come around” – whatever that means.
I am sure the day will eventually come where I draw a line and will lose friends and followers.
Thank you, Wilma…glad you’re onboard!
KevinH,
I think we need to stay the course…but we have to be very careful to add the positive to the negative…demonstrate what is wrong and proclaim what is right…and I think we’re trying to walk that line to the best of our ability.
PH,
I think during any administration there will be opportunity to speak biblical truth to power and we have to do so.
In church, I mainly want to equip people to see and live the biblical truths and be conformed to the image of Christ.
Politically, I aim to be an equal opportunity offender…
The vast majority of 1st century Jews wanted a Barabbas because he fights (sound familiar?). They were were tired of being pushed around, controlled, maligned, etc. by the Romans (and everybody else). They wanted to Make Israel Great Again. So they got their wish and in 70 AD the bill came due. I expect the same thing for the vast majority of Christians and the Church in the US.
Speaking of David Brooks…his latest NY Times column is a barnburner.
“The Stupidity of the Tariffs Are the Achievement of a Lifetime”
After a long column documenting how our culture is becoming more and more illiterate, he ends it by saying:
What happens when people lose the ability to reason or render good judgments? Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you Donald Trump’s tariff policy. I’ve covered a lot of policies over the decades, some of which I supported and some of which I opposed.
But I have never seen a policy as stupid as this one. It is based on false assumptions. It rests on no coherent argument in its favor. It relies on no empirical evidence. It has almost no experts on its side — from left, right or center. It is jumble-headedness exemplified.
Trump himself personifies stupidity’s essential feature — self-satisfaction, an inability to recognize the flaws in your thinking. And of course when the approach led to absolutely predictable mayhem, Trump, lacking any coherent plan, backtracked, flip-flopped, responding impulsively to the pressures of the moment as his team struggled to keep up.
Producing something this stupid is not the work of a day; it is the achievement of a lifetime — relying on decades of incuriosity, decades of not cracking a book, decades of being impervious to evidence.”
I stand with you, Michael. I don’t post much here anymore, but I still keep tabs on you and your journey and on this blog in part because you preach Jesus. Jesus is Who we need always, and especially now.
Thanks, BrianD…we do indeed need to be centered on Jesus now more than ever…
PH –
I suppose we may have been acquainted when I lived up north. Outside my family I try to keep most political conversations lighthearted and make sport of all types of politicians . I have friends who are dispensationalist and very excited about the rapture, tribulation, and millennium. Yet they have no inkling that Mr Trump might just bear some resemblance to the beast, and Mr Musk to the false prophet.
Idahoan,
I’ve been in North Idaho for 16 years by way of Utah by way of California. All very unique cultures with their own set of challenges and benefits. One thing good about Idaho, the services my disabled son receives are much better here than in Utah. Politically speaking, it can get noisy here as both strong conservatives and strong liberals cross swords from time to time. They almost seem to like provoking each other for kicks.
I still check in and still care about your well being Michael. I just do not have a focus upon the political obsession – even as a lament against evangelicals.
My concern is the corruption, the rot of our souls as ministers. The gold has rusted and the iron has no chance. Chaucer’s old lament is mine.
Alan,
Thanks.
It would be good for us if you would expand on your concerns…
PH, I am. Californian living in Idaho, and I tell ya… I agree with you 100%. Very strange cultural Christianity. Very political. But I am feeling at home in a Lutheran congregation. Who knew?
Michael,
IMO, Trump is beginning to show his pragmatic colors, and that pragmatism runs counter to Christ. I am starting to feel like your friends will be back soon… I hope!
Jerod,
I doubt it…if what has already been done hasn’t persuaded them, nothing will.
I suppose there is a possibility that when it begins to affect them personally, they may…but that will only be because it harmed them, not because they see how anti-christ all this is…
Jerod,
There are a few churches here in Coeur d’Alene that are highly charged politically. But there are a lot that aren’t buying into all the noise. People who are looking for a Fox News Driven Church don’t last long in our church, because they realize we don’t speak that language, and that they will not get a voice to spout the silliness. That goes for anyone who would want to drive an MSNBC-like agenda as well. We’re seeking clarity about Jesus, not confusion.
I understand that We don’t agree on whether the USA was/is in decline. But for those who do, I don’t think there is any precedent for a declining empire reforming and ascending again.
Trump thinks we can achieve global supremacy again. He believes that without reorganizing the global order, we cannot prosper economically and be secure militarily. He has children and grandchildren, so his long term goals align with those of his constituency.
We are in uncharted territory. We have to face the realities of a hollowed out industrial base, dependence on hostile countries for our medicines, being a debtor nation to our adversary, having (heretofore) inadequate border security, allowing entry of students who foment evil and do not share our values at our educational institutions, normalizing insane moral and sexual ethics, valuing identity politics over merit in the workplace, being the most unhealthy nation in the world, etc., etc.
He is not a perfect man, and has many flaws, but I believe we should all be praying for him that he will successfully lead our nation into a new era of prosperity, peace and opportunity for all.
Jean,
I can only assume at this point that you are delusional…he has no plan other than to exact revenge on his enemies.
The question isn’t about if he’ll succeed, it’s whether we will survive.
Jean, can you honestly tell us that you don’t see significant problems and violation of Christian ethics and teachings in many of the ways Trump has spoken of and treated immigrants, the way in which he has treated and spoken of federal workers, the way in which he has fired many top level federal workers not because of any incompetence and wrongdoing on their end, but simply because they were deemed to be not loyal enough to him, the way in which he has cozied up to dictators of the world while slandering leaders of democratic nations, the way in which he has suggested/threatened the use of force to take over other lands which do not belong to us, the way in which he keeps violating law after law in many of his executive actions and disregards court orders, the way in which he regularly speaks of his “enemies”, the way in which he constantly tells lie after lie, even when many of his lies are easily proven to be untrue by readily obtained and known factual information and documentation, and on and on and on?
KevinH,
Jean is an intelligent man.
If he chooses to ignore the destruction of the republic and the gross abuses of human rights and human decency, he is without excuse and discussion is pointless.
Such nonsense will not go unanswered here, however.
I don’t deny that Trump has and is handling some things unethically and immorally. However, I’ve come to expect that from our politicians and the last president was just as unethical and immoral only in different ways and often out of the public eye.
On the other hand what Trump is trying to do, if successful, will benefit the nation more than the agenda of any administration during my lifetime.
I guess it all depends on what one is looking for: Is it solely for flaws; or is it also for the positives? I am choosing to also see the positives.
Jean,
If you can turn a blind eye to all the civil and human rights violations of this administration, the rule by fear and the threat to deport American citizens, I don’t know which Bible or constitution you’re reading.
If you really believe that showing the whole world into chaos economically is part of some grand plan to “make America great again”, you are indeed delusional.
The vital institutions that made America the greatest country on earth are being dismantled by hoods and thieves…without proper audits or congressional oversight.
We are about to lose everything…
There was a Jean before the “They/Them” commercial, and a Jean after. That, my friends, is a study in highly effective propaganda.
Josh,
I think that’s a great observation.
It is stunning how many are ok with turning the U.S. into Russia West if they can have gender certainty…
Josh,
I am not a single issue voter. I don’t know about a “They/Them” commercial. The thing that crystalized the trans issue for me was when I saw the impact on women’s sports, e.g., volleyball, swimming and soccer. That is when I felt the need to take a side and speak clearly on that issue.
I have been on the wrong end of DEI for most of my adult life. I thought I was doing my part and taking responsibility for the sins of my ancestors. However, the problem is, with DEI and CRT, there is no redemption, ever. There is never enough. It is a perpetual paying, a perpetual guilt.
In the long run, it doesn’t achieve its goal. Like our Dept. of Health and Human Services, which with a budget of tens of billions has presided over America becoming the sickest developed country in the world, or the Dept. of Education, which with a budget of tens of billions has presided over a severely under educated and in many cases illiterate citizenry, why can’t we stop the bleeding, stop the same failed policies, and try something new?
Does anyone really think that we can continue indefinitely to procure our medicines from adversaries, continue to borrow trillions from adversaries, continue to outsource the manufacture of national security technologies from other countries? I actually believe that most politicians see the problem, but until this moment no one else has had the strength or imagination to tackle these problems.
I guess I could ask, with sincerity, what other plausible options are there for America to get its act together? Google the national debt and deficit, if you really think America is on a sustainable track. I assume we would all like to see America continue as a prosperous nation for the sake of our children and grandchildren.
Yeah, they got you. Did a real number on you. Its a shame.
Then again, there was a Josh pre-2016 and a Josh post-2016. I guess we’re all allowed to evolve.
Jean,
If you want to address waste in government (or companies) you hire professional auditors and carefully consider where to cut.
We both know that is not what is happening here.
Trump is fully embracing Project 2025 and the objective is to destroy our institutions and privatize them.
Economically, it’s now us against the world…and we will be isolated while your boy tanks our economy for the benefit of himself and his fellow oligarchs.
The poor, the elderly, minorities, and veterans will suffer the most…and the suffering for some is already beginning.
And the beat goes on:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/maga-pastor-tells-churchgoers-to-suck-it-up-and-stop-whining-about-trump-tariffs/ar-AA1D7Pi9?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=7ae88940c2904d3e98a736c1c11f8981&ei=8
I agree with those who say that people should stop giving to McCoy’s ministry and let the government take his tax-exempt status, then see if he becomes one of the whiners.
Bob Coy is exhibit A of a person not following this maxim: “Better to be thought of a fool, than to open one’s mouth and remove all doubt.” Basic economics (micro and macro) seems to escape that idiot. At this point, I am not sure who are the bigger idiots (Trump and his circle of minions or his brain-dead followers).
Taken from Reason.com (hardly a left-wing, liberal organization):
Equally misguided is Trump’s idea about using tariffs to reduce America’s trade deficit with other countries. To understand why, think about the transactions that occur between your household and your favorite grocery store. You buy lots of goods from the grocery store, but it never purchases anything from you—therefore, you’re running a sizable trade deficit.
Tariffs are nothing more than a tax on those transactions. Trump’s logic says that you could be wealthy if you mailed $25 to the U.S. Treasury for every $100 in groceries that you purchase. That’s ridiculous. You’d be poorer, and the trade deficit with the store would still exist. Perhaps you’d choose to spend less on groceries to avoid the extra cost imposed upon yourself, but that should only illustrate how the extra $25 reduced your standard of living.
R’as al Ghul, I think you’re referring to Rob McCoy.
Ra’s al Ghul, you wrote:
“Equally misguided is Trump’s idea about using tariffs to reduce America’s trade deficit with other countries. To understand why, think about the transactions that occur between your household and your favorite grocery store. You buy lots of goods from the grocery store, but it never purchases anything from you—therefore, you’re running a sizable trade deficit.”
If you buy lots of goods from the grocery store, but it never purchases anything from you, then what do you suppose eventually happens to your checking account?
If you buy lots of goods and services from various stores, but no one buys a commensurate amount of goods and services from you, you eventually run out of money.
You could try to borrow money from all the stores to enable you to keep buying from them. Your debt to the stores would grow until the debt service becomes unbearable. Then what?
The stores can take your money and buy little pieces of your home and property (intellectual and physical), and eventually own you. Or it can take your money and build up a military to eventually defeat you in war. As your lender it can exert influence over you to ensure your subservience to the stores.
Meanwhile, since you are buying everything on credit, while not producing much, your family is not needed for gainful employment in all the industries where you are buying stuff from other stores.
Jean,
That does not change the fact that the supposed trade deficit with the store. Second, read up the economic Law of Comparative Advantage and get back to me. Since you are fond of the these tariffs, in this case, your idiot in chief is pissed off at a store you and your family have shopped for generations simply because your deadbeat friend can’t run a business effectively or don’t have the resources to do so.
While we are at it, maybe you and Trump can get your electronics, steel, aluminum from the Heard and McDonald Islands instead of Canada.
Try better next time.
Jean,
Enjoy paying 21% more on your tomatoes. Oh, and good luck getting American kids and young people to pick any increased domestic tomato capability, even at $15 a hour. And even better luck when your buddy Trump deports all the migrant workers that actually do all the domestic produce picking.
https://reason.com/2025/04/16/new-21-tariff-will-make-fresh-tomatoes-more-expensive/
Ra’s al Ghul, you wrote:
“Second, read up the economic Law of Comparative Advantage and get back to me.”
Does that “law” work if only one side of a trading relationship adheres to it?
Also, Is the lowest price the sole or highest priority of a trading relationship?
Can a nation consider a healthy manufacturing base as economic and national security issues and priorities?
Jean your comment about (Ricardo’s) Law of Comparative Advantage clearly shows your ignorance of it.
https://www.econlib.org/library/Topics/Details/comparativeadvantage.html
If you also understood the concept of opportunity cost, then that would help.
A Thought Experiment: America vs. Vietnam:
Let us imagine a modern Ricardian scenario. Suppose the United States and Vietnam both produce semiconductors and footwear — two very different products that represent high-tech and low-tech industries.
Suppose this is how many labor hours are needed to produce one unit of each:
– USA: 20 hours for semiconductors, 12 hours for footwear.
– Vietnam: 10 hours for semiconductors, 4 hours for footwear.
In this example, Vietnam is more efficient than the U.S. at producing both products. Many would say: “Vietnam should make everything.” But Ricardo would say: look at the opportunity costs.
– In the U.S., making one semiconductor means giving up 1.67 pairs of shoes (20 ÷ 12).
– In Vietnam, making one semiconductor means giving up 2.5 pairs of shoes (10 ÷ 4).
THIS IS THE OPPORTUNITY COST.
So although the U.S. is slower at making both goods, it sacrifices less footwear to make semiconductors. In economic terms, it has a comparative advantage in semiconductors, while Vietnam has a comparative advantage in footwear.
If both countries specialize accordingly and trade, they will each end up with more of both goods than if they tried to do everything on their own. That’s not theory — that’s logic.
Logic which apparently escapes you, Trump’s fans, and the idiot-in-chief himself.
This is why airplanes and corn are made in the US and while T-shirts are made in Vietnam.
“If both countries specialize accordingly and trade, they will each end up with more of both goods than if they tried to do everything on their own. That’s not theory — that’s logic.”
“If”. What country is actually doing that with us. How is it that Vietnam ran a $125 billion trade surplus with us in 2024? Is that sustainable for us, if that is the pattern with our biggest trading partners?
https://thedispatch.com/article/trump-tariffs-taxes-housing-prices-lumber/
https://thedispatch.com/article/fact-check-reciprocal-tariffs/
https://thedispatch.com/article/trump-tariffs-reciprocal-trade-stocks/
Three links from a conservative outlet…only the blindest of the blind will choose to think Trump is acting in wisdom.
Michael,
I would like to read those articles but they are behind a paywall.
her’s one…The dispatch is well worth paying for…
When rolling out its new round of tariffs earlier this week, the Trump administration described the measures, ranging from 10 to 50 percent and assigned to nearly every U.S. trading partner, as “reciprocal.” There’s just one problem with this notion of “reciprocity”: The administration intends its tariffs to be actual charges levied on imports, but the so-called tariffs it is responding to are computed from non-policy data, and in some cases invented out of thin air.
No, the White House’s notion of reciprocity has nothing to do with mirroring other countries’ actual policies. The United States is not placing a 49 percent tariff on Cambodian goods because Cambodia applies a 49 percent tax on goods imported from the United States. Instead, the U.S. Trade Representative is simply asserting, “if trade deficits are persistent because of tariff and non-tariff policies and fundamentals, then the tariff rate consistent with offsetting these policies and fundamentals is reciprocal and fair.” The new policy, in other words, is imposing tariffs designed not to respond to specific harms, but to equalize the bilateral trade balances with every country.
Responding to specific harms would be a valid goal: Foreign countries do sometimes impose discriminatory taxes in their trading relationships with the United States, such as “digital services taxes” aimed at wealthy U.S. tech companies. A better Trump administration trade policy might have focused on these measures. But that’s not what’s happening here.
Rather, executive branch officials have accused every listed country or territory of having at least 10 percent tariffs on the U.S., no matter what those countries’ trade policies are or what kind of trading relationship we have with them. (This may be how a chain of barren Antarctic islands populated by seals and penguins ended up unjustly accused of trade violations.) Then further, they converted bilateral trade deficits into synthetic “tariff rates” via a formula that divides the difference between U.S. exports and imports with that country by the total number of imports to create a sort of percentage that reflects a balance of trade, not a tariff. Take the larger of those two numbers, and you get the number featured in graphics distributed via social media and shared by Trump himself in remarks delivered from the Rose Garden: “Tariffs Charged to the USA Including Currency Manipulation and Trade Barriers.” Neither option—the 10 percent nor the trade balance percentage—is a measure of tariffs. (Per Washington Post reporting, the administration’s advisers did attempt to compute actual tariff policies by other countries, but that analysis ended up unused in Trump’s tariff rollout.)
This calculated figure does not represent what the White House says it does, and is even at odds with the documentation on the U.S. trade representative’s website, which seems to acknowledge the possibility that some trade deficits come from “fundamentals,” a term that isn’t defined in the document but could conceivably mean “circumstances where a trade imbalance is economically efficient.” (For example: below we will consider a country whose agricultural climate is excellent for particular crops the U.S. lacks, but whose consumer market is small.) Despite this concession that trade deficits might reflect fundamentals, all trade deficits are still assumed to need addressing with offsetting tariffs.
Given the haphazard way the Trump administration arrived at its numbers, other countries have no way to cooperate, even if they wanted to. Very friendly trading partners like Israel and Vietnam made efforts to show maximum openness to the U.S. this month by cutting some of their few remaining tariffs, only to find themselves rendered guilty and charged with tariffs anyway, forcing them to scramble for additional solutions this week. Even knowing the formula behind the Trump team’s calculations, immediate solutions are not obvious—because bilateral trade “imbalances” are not a legitimate policy issue to be remedied.
For starters, trade balances between two countries aren’t a real measure of economic substance. Trade data tells you little about where goods truly originate or end up; import data showcases only the most recent link in the supply chain, and export data showcases only the next one. For example, many goods labeled as imports from Mexico or Canada include supply-chain contributions from other countries, including the United States itself, earlier in the industrial process.
And in many cases, it wouldn’t make sense for the United States’ bilateral trade balance with another country to be equal. Take Madagascar and Australia, for example. The U.S. runs a trade deficit in goods with Madagascar—meaning we import more from the African nation than we export to it—but a surplus with Australia. The Trump approach is designed to address the “problem” above by putting very high, 47 percent tariffs on goods from Madagascar, but a minimum rate, 10 percent, on goods from Australia.
But neither of these bilateral relationships presents a problem for the United States. Madagascar is a low-income country with an extraordinarily strong ability to produce vanilla beans. Americans enjoy the vanilla beans, but we do not benefit much from selling our various wares to low-income people from the African island nation. It makes sense for us to lean toward net imports in our interactions with the Madagascans.
Australia, by contrast, is a high-income country, and its exports include a lot of metals. Americans benefit from selling goods and services like aircraft or streaming video subscriptions to wealthy Australian consumers, but don’t have much need for Australian metals. Australia is far away, metals are very heavy, and we’re pretty good at mining metals of our own. It makes sense for us to lean toward net exports in our interactions with the Australians.
Trade deficits aren’t necessarily harmful even at the aggregate level. In recent decades, the U.S. has run trade deficits primarily because foreigners have been eager to sell us goods to get access to valuable U.S. financial assets like stocks and bonds. With our enviable array of valuable public companies, the U.S. is a fantastic place to invest. Or at least it was, prior to the opening bell on Wall Street on Thursday. The wreckage before us—trillions in market capitalization destroyed, thousands of dollars in tax hikes for the average family—is a terrible sacrifice we are making, all in order to solve a non-problem.
Thanks Michael. It’s great that we live in a country where diverse views are allowed to compete in the marketplace of ideas.
Jean,
Once again, you fail to understand what a trade deficit is. You fail to understand (like Trump) that trade is NOT a zero-sum game. You, like Trump fail to understand it is better to buy vanilla beans from Madagascar and have a trade deficit and have a surplus with Australia selling movies and aircraft. Your obtuseness both astounds and shocks me.
Jean,
And the Madagascar Australia example is yet another example of Comparative Advantage at work. Madagascar has a comparative advantage in vanilla beans and the US has on for aircraft. Which is why BOTH are exported by the representative countries and why other countries IMPORT them.
To quote Andy Dufresne in Shawshank Redemption, “How can you be so obtuse?”
“You, like Trump fail to understand it is better to buy vanilla beans from Madagascar and have a trade deficit and have a surplus with Australia selling movies and aircraft.”
You never answered my earlier question regarding whether we have trading partners adhering to the comparative advantage principle.
However, instead of principles, laws and theories, here’s a dose of reality: the US ran a trade deficit with the world last year to the tune of about $983.4 billion. So almost a trillion net dollars of American wealth left America last year alone and went to countries who can use it to buy American companies or real estate, build up their militaries, and/or lend it back to us for interest. Again, is the status quo sustainable?